The 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico is expected to provide a temporary uplift for Europe’s airlines, though analysts caution that the financial impact is unlikely to be transformative. For carriers such as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and British Airways owner IAG, the tournament offers an opportunity to capture incremental transatlantic demand.
The contrast with previous major events is notable. Air France-KLM suffered a €200 million revenue hit during the 2024 Paris Olympics as tourists avoided the city. By comparison, this year’s football tournament could stimulate travel from supporters of European teams including England, Spain, Germany and France. Airbnb has highlighted strong interest from international Gen Z travellers, while FIFA’s president has described demand as “absolutely crazy”. Even low-cost carrier Wizz Air has applied to operate charter flights to the United States.
Transatlantic routes remain particularly attractive for European airlines, supported by robust premium demand and constrained capacity. RBC analysts forecast a 2.6 per cent increase in North Atlantic capacity this summer, compared with a 3.9 per cent rise in demand, suggesting scope for pricing power. Unexpected progression by European teams could also generate lucrative last-minute bookings, adding further yield upside during the tournament period.
However, the scale of the opportunity appears limited. Bank of America analysts estimate that American travellers accounted for 60 per cent of transatlantic passengers between the United States and Europe in 2025, underscoring the importance of US consumer health. Tourism Economics projected in November that the World Cup could attract 742,000 incremental international visitors to the United States, a figure that might rise to around 900,000 given the distribution of matches. This compares with more than 100 million passengers transported by IAG in 2024.
While US network carriers are likely to benefit from long domestic distances between host cities, European airlines’ full-year results will continue to hinge on factors such as non-fuel costs, premium demand and broader transatlantic travel conditions. The tournament may provide a profitable burst, but it is unlikely to redefine the sector’s trajectory.
